WASHINGTON – After a month of political conventions, new controversies, more protests and more coronavirus deaths, the 2020 presidential race remains where it has been for months – with Joe Biden leading President Trump nationwide near double digits and with a majority of voters opposing the president.
These are the results of a new NBC News / Wall Street Journal national poll, which finds Biden 8 points ahead of registered voters, from 51% to 43%, with over 50% of voters disapproving of Trump’s job performance and with Trump holding the lead over the economy and Biden holding the lead over the coronavirus.
Furthermore, the poll shows that nearly 90% of voters have made a firm decision and that seven out of ten believe that upcoming debates are not that important in deciding their vote.
“So far, despite the great upheavals in the country, little has changed,”
“In 2020, the fundamentals of our country have been shaken to the core, while the fundamentals of the elections have not,” added Horwitt.
However, the poll finds that 11% of all voters are up for grabs, which is greater than Biden’s advantage over Trump.
And Trump’s numbers have gradually increased in polls since the summer, while Biden’s favor score has also improved over the past month.
“Trump’s summer faint is over,” said McInturff, the GOP pollster.
The NBC News / WSJ poll – conducted September 13-16 – comes after a turbulent and news-filled month, including Democratic and Republican conventions, the Jacob Blake police shooting in Wisconsin, nearly 30,000 more deaths from the coronavirus, the Atlantic report alleging the president disparaged fallen military service members and coverage of Bob Woodward’s new book on Trump.
But the poll was conducted before Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died on September 18.
According to the poll, Biden leads Trump, 51% to 43%, among registered voters, essentially unchanged from Biden’s 9-point lead last month, from 50% to 41%.
6% in the current survey say they are indecisive or support another candidate.
Biden’s biggest advantages in the poll are among black voters (he gets 90% to 5% support for Trump), voters aged 18-34 (60% to 31%), women (57%) 37%), whites with university degrees (from 54% to 41%), independent (from 45% to 39%) and elderly (from 50% to 46%).
Trump, meanwhile, has the edge among all white voters (52% to 43%), men (50% to 45%), and whites without a degree (59% to 36%).
(Another sample of Latin American voters NBC News / Wall Street Journal / Telemundo will be released Sunday at 6:30 PM ET to assess where the Latin vote stands in the presidential race.)
And in the 12 oscillating states combined – Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – Biden is 6 points ahead of Trump, from 51% to 45%.
The vote up for grabs
Nearly 50% of all voters registered in the poll say there is no chance to support Trump in the election, while nearly 40% of voters say the same as Biden.
That leaves, according to NBC News / WSJ pollsters, 11% appearing to be up for grabs between the two candidates.
These voters up for grabs have mostly negative views on both Trump and Biden, and their preference for 2020 is split between Trump (27%), Biden (20%), neither (27%) and unsafe (24%) ).
“This doesn’t look like a group that Trump can run the table with, which he has to do to change the race,” said Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.
Likewise, a total of 71% of voters say the upcoming presidential debates, which will begin on September 29, are either not important or just a bit important in deciding their vote in the presidential competition.
Only 29% say debates are “extremely” or “fairly” important.
Numbers improved for both Trump and Biden
The NBC News / WSJ poll also shows slightly improved numbers for President Trump and Biden.
Forty-five percent of voters approve of Trump’s job performance – up from 42 percent in July and up from 44 percent in August, even though this movement falls within the poll’s margin of error.
Fifty-three percent disapprove of the president’s work, which has remained unchanged from last month.
But only 40% approve of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus, while 57% disapprove, also essentially unchanged since August.
Meanwhile, Biden’s preference increased from positive 39%, negative 45% (-6) last month, to positive 43%, negative 45% (-2).
This is compared to Trump’s current rating of 41% positive, 52% negative (-11).
Last month’s numbers for the president were 40% positive and 52% negative (-12).
Vice President Mike Pence has a positive rating of 38%, negative 44% (-6) and the rating of Democratic running mate Kamala Harris is 37% positive and 38% negative (-1).
Trump continues to lead the economy; Biden has an advantage on the coronavirus
On issues, Trump leads Biden by 10 points on which candidate will manage the economy best, with 48% of voters choosing the president versus 38% choosing Biden.
Trump’s advantage is 16 points on border protection and immigration control (from 49% to 33%) and 9 points on relations with China (from 46% to 37%).
Biden, however, is in charge of health care (53% to 31%), coronavirus (51% to 29%), race relations (52% to 28%), protection of immigrants’ rights ( 57% to 25%) and climate change (58 to 19 percent).
And on personal characteristics, the survey shows that Biden is a leader in supporting and respecting the military and veterans (47% to 42%), serving as commander in chief (49% to 41%), being honest and trustworthy ( 47% to 30%). per cent) and have the ability to bring the country together (52 to 28 per cent).
Voters are essentially divided on which candidate has the mental and physical health to be president, with 41% saying Trump is better and 38% saying Biden is.
Electoral interest is higher than ever
When it comes to the November elections, 80% of voters say they have a high level of interest, recording a “9” or a “10” on a 10-point scale.
This is the highest percentage on this issue dating back to the 2004 election, suggesting skyrocketing turnout.
And there is no difference by party in electoral interest, with 83% of Democrats and 83% of Republicans having a high interest.
Most voters intend to vote early
Finally, a total of 52% of voters say they will vote early, by post, by voting early in person or that they have already voted.
This is compared to 42 per cent who plan to vote in polling stations for elections.
There is a large political divide here, with 67% of Democrats voting early, versus only 36% of Republicans.
The NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll was conducted September 13-16 of 1,000 registered voters – more than half of whom were contacted by cell phone – and the overall margin of error is plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.