After focusing on the games with the key bubbles in the last two days, we re-check the potential thieves of offers still available at this stage of the week of the championship.
Atlantic-10 – Bubble teams will hold on to VCU here, but it is likely that Dayton or Davidson will make the final on Sunday, both of which could annoy Rams.
Big 12 – West Virginia is the story of Cinderella here after finishing the last championship. The climbers have already beaten the Oklahoma and Texas Tech, organizing the match on Friday with Kansas.
Big East – The team to keep an eye on is Xavier, who will have an interesting big case if they get rid of Marquette on Friday.
Big Ten – Nebraska is the only potential thief of offer still alive here, but Huskers will have to pull off five wins in five days to go dancing. They will face Wisconsin on Friday
Mid-American – Buffalo's chances of winning the tournament improved when Toledo was eliminated on Thursday, but if anyone besides the Bulls won this, there will be one less point for the potential bubble teams.
Mountain West – Bubble teams desperately need Nevada or Utah State to win this tournament, and if both win their semi-final matches on Friday, there will be a collective exhalation.
Pac-12 – While I suppose you could argue against having Washington and Arizona State on the field, the focus here is on Colorado and Oregon, both of which have played well over the past times.
Before looking at the seeds, I wanted to give a quick reminder about how the NCAA selection committee ranks victories based on the new NET Rating.
A breakdown of the four levels:
· Level 1 : Home against teams ranked 1 -30 / Neutral against teams ranked 1-50 / Road against teams r 1-75
· Level 2 : Home team vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral against teams ranked 51-100 / Road against teams ranked 76-135
· Level 3 : Home team vs teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral against teams ranked 101- 200 / Road against ranked teams 136-240
· Level 4 : Home standings vs. 161-351 / Neutral teams against 201-351 ranked teams / Road against ranked teams 241-351
I said Tuesday morning that Virginia and Gonzaga were stuck on that line, and it's reasonable to question one of those after Tuesday night. However, it is important to keep in mind that it is only one game out of 33 for Gonzaga, and it is also the first defeat against a team outside the NET Top 10. The victory of the Bulldogs on Duke in Maui will still bring a ton of weight, and Gonzaga's metrics are among the best in the nation. For now, I leave them in the front row, because I don't think a loss should leave them three points on the seed list given their overall profile.
Outside of these, there are four main competitors for the remaining two seeds at the top. Thanks to Duke's success and nine Quad 1 victories, North Carolina has moved into a row earlier this week. The heels are 11-1 on the road and do not have a loss outside the Quad 1, but it is possible that the return of Zion Williamson and a race in the ACC tournament by Duke may push the Blue Devils to the front line again one time . We will know much more once we see UNC and Duke confront each other in the ACC semi-finals. I find it unlikely that three ACC teams will get a seed, but after Tuesday night, the odds have increased.
The SEC has a similar situation with Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU all in the mix. For now, Kentucky makes the mark after beating Florida on Saturday. The Wildcats have 10 victories in Quad 1, while Tennessee has better losses but fewer victories. LSU's situation is obviously evolving for a variety of reasons, but winning the regular season and tournament titles in the SEC could make it interesting.
Michigan State is the other team in the running, but they will have to make a deep Big Ten The tournament takes place with Nick Ward in line while he hopes for the first releases from the teams that precede them in the list of seeds.
The projections below are based on all the games played until March 14, 2019. Following the parenthesis, I included some thoughts on the last four in as well as the other teams that I considered.
|EAST (WASHINGTON, DC)||SOUTH (LOUISVILLE)|
|Columbia – March 22/24||Columbia – March 22/24|
|1) Virginia||1) North Carolina|
|16) North Dakota St. / Norfolk St.  16) Sam Houston St.|
| 8) Seton Hall
||8 Central Florida|
|9) Baylor||9) Oklahoma|
|Hartford – 21/23 March||San Jose – 22/24 March|
| 5) Marquette
 5) Auburn
|12) Murray St.|| 12) Saint Mary & # 39; s
|4) Kansas St .||4) Kansas|
|13) UC Irvine||13) Old Dominion|
|Des Moines – 21/23 March||Tulsa – 22/24 March  6) Buffalo||6) Villanova|
|11) Temple||11) Arizona St.|
|3) Purdue||3) LSU|
|14) Harvard||14) Northeastern|
|Jacksonville – March 21/23||Columbus – March 22/24|
|7) Iowa St.||7  10) Syracuse  10) Washington  2) Tennessee [1965 Cincinnati) 9042] 2) Michigan St.|
| 15) Bradley
||15) Montana MIDWEST ( KANSAS CITY)||WEST (ANAHEIM)|
|Columbus – 22/24 March||Salt Lake City – 21/23 March|
|1) Kentucky||1) Gonzaga|
|16) Prairie View A & M||16) Iona / F. Dickinson|
|8) Iowa||8) VCU|
|9) Utah St.||9) Ole Miss|
|San Jose – 22/24 March||Hartford – 21/23 March|
|5) Virginia Tech||5) Mississippi St.|
|12) New Mexico St.||12) Belmont / NC State|
|4) Wisconsin||4) Florida St.|
|13) Liberty||13) Vermont|
|Tulsa – 22/24 March||Salt Lake City – 21/23 March|
|6) Maryland||6) Nevada|
| 11) St. John & # 39; s / Florida
||11) Ohio St.|
|3) Houston||3) Texas Tech|
|14) Northern Kentucky  14) Georgia St.|
|Jacksonville – 21/23 March||Des Moines – 21/23 March  7) Wofford||7) Louisville|
|10) Minnesota  10) TCU  2) Duke  2) Michigan|
|15) Gardner-Webb  15) Colgate|
Last Four In :
St. John & # 39; s – It was a close encounter between the Red Storm and Ohio State to determine which team avoided Dayton, but I nodded to the Buckeyes. St. John did very little in the non-conference outside of beating VCU, and they each lost twice in DePaul, Providence and Xavier. The red storm swept Marquette in the regular season, before being thrown at the Golden Eagles on Thursday night, and in the end I don't feel unsafe. The last three teams were much more difficult to select.
Belmont – After losing in the OVC championship game in Murray State, the Bruins find themselves in the large pool, and have the most convincing case of one of the mid-level majors who failed to win the self-offer so far. So far, things have really broken quite well for them. They own a vast array of Lipscombs and won the regular season game at Murray State. But despite a striking 25-5 score against Division I teams, Belmont's status on the bubble is tenuous given a couple of Quad 3 losses and no victory over potential candidates in style.
Florida – After taking care of the businesses against the Arkansas on Thursday, the Gators will have another crack at LSU. Both games with the Tigers this season have gone to overtime with the emerging street team winning in every race. It is important to keep in mind that Florida is only 3-11 against large conversation teams. All three of their victories in the Quad 1 came on the road, but they have two Quad 3 defeats among their 14 total defeats.
NC State – A great comeback and late free throws prompted Wolfpack to win Clemson in their opening of the ACC tournament, but they were wiped out of Virginia Thursday. The strength of Wolfpack's non-conference program is the worst in the nation, and only one of the nine victories of the ACC's regular season came against a team with a winning league record (Syracuse). More home victories on Auburn and Clemson are useful, but it seems that every year there is a team that ends up being punished for a poor non-conference program, which this year could only be the state of the NC. For now, the fact that both of their losses came against the top 25 teams in the network and decent metrics have barely got them in the bottom line.
Other teams considered :
Indiana – The Hoosiers have won the last four regular season games to return to playing in the bubble, but a lackluster performance for most of the game Thursday with Ohio State may have been the last nail in the coffin. A Michigan State sweep represents two of the six Quad 1 wins in the IU, and the comments of the committee chair to be diligent in accident research could certainly come into play here. However, the Hoosiers now have 15 losses, and we have not seen a team receive a great offer just two games over 500 from Georgia in 2001. So, despite the losses of Quad 3 or Quad 4, the story is definitely not the side of the Hoosiers.
UNC Greensboro – The Spartans gave Wofford a hard test in the SoCon Final and picked up another victory over the whirlpool companion Furman to get there. All six losses of UNCG fall into Quad 1, but the two victories on Furman are the only ones of note. The predictive metrics don't do anyone any favors, so it's likely that the Spartans are headed for NIT despite having won 26 Division I games.
Alabama – The Crimson Tide came from behind to defeat Ole Miss Thursday night, preparing a rematch with Kentucky in the SEC quarter-finals. Like so many other bubble teams, the Alabama already has 14 defeats, with two of them falling into Quad 3 and five of them against non-challenged teams. The house wins over Kentucky, Mississippi and Ole Miss is the best of the Alabama, but it's hard to see them take the field without another victory over the Wildcats.
Creighton – The Bluejays have yet to lose to a team outside NET's Top 75, but the defeat on Thursday's second second to Xavier gave them the 14th season defeat. Creighton has three Quad 1 wins, but the road victory at Marquette is their solitary victory on a team comfortably in the field.
Xavier – The season-ending wave continues for the Musketeers, who have won seven of the following eight a series of six-game defeats. While they have only one win against a team in the NET Top 50, they have four Quad 1 wins and five more in Quad 2. A couple of Quad 3 losses are holding them back, but a second victory over Villanova would hold hope alive.
Texas – A major loss of the 12th Tournament in Kansas left the Longhorns at 16-16. While they boast five Quad 1 victories, I can't see the commission joining a .500 team  Clemson – Wednesday's loss to NC left the Tigers at 1-10 in Quad 1 games, which it seems too much to overcome. Their only loss came in Miami, but Clemson's best victories came against a Virginia Tech of Justin Robinson, Syracuse and Lipscomb, who were all at home.
Furman – The aforementioned loss in Greensboro of the UNC probably marked the end for the Paladins, who finished 13-5 in the SoCon. They boast a huge victory on the road without a conference in Villanova and they have only a bad defeat. However, that lost house at Samford could go back to haunting them, and it's worth noting that three of Furman's 25 victories came against non-Division I opponents. The paladins were also only 2-5 in matches against other top teams in SoCon.
Conference Breakdown :
Big Ten (8): Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
ACC (8): Duke, Florida State , Louisville, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Big 12 (7): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas Tech
SEC (7 ): Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, State of Mississippi, Tennessee
American (4): Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Temple  Big East (4): Marquette, St. John & # 39; s, Seton Hall, Villanova
Mountain West (2): Nevada, Utah State
Ohio Valley (2): Belmont, Murray State *
Pac-12 (2): Arizona State, Washington
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary & # 39; s *
Eastern America: Vermont
Atlantic 10: VCU
Atlantic Sun: Liberty *
Big Sky: Montana
Bi g Sud : Gardner-Webb *
Big West: UC Irvine
Colonial: Northeastern *
US Conference: Old Dominion
Horizon: Northern Kentucky *
MAAC: Iona *
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: Bradley *
Northeast: Fairleigh Dickinson *
Patriot: Colgate *
Southern: Wofford *
Southland: Sam Houston State
SWAC: Prairie View A & M
Summit: North Dakota State *
Sun Belt: Georgia State
WAC: New Mexico State
* – Automatic bid earned
Follow Andy on Twitter ( @ andybottoms ) for more thoughts on university circles and to receive an update each time new parentheses are published.