Among the likely voters in North Carolina, 49% support Biden, 46% Trump. In Wisconsin, voters are likely to exceed 52% for Biden to 42% for Trump.
The findings suggest that North Carolina voters see some strength in every candidate. Voters are likely to split over which candidate will handle the campaign’s core issues best, with Trump holding an edge in running the economy (52% to 45% among likely voters) and Biden ahead in handling the coronavirus pandemic. (52% to 46%) and racial inequality in the United States (53% to 41%). They see Biden as more likely to unite the country (54% to 40%), and are more likely to say that Trump has the stamina and sharpness to be president (50% to 44%). They split equally (47% to 47%) on who has a clear plan to solve the country̵
In Wisconsin, on the other hand, Biden has an advantage over Trump over all but two of those tested pairings, and over those in which Biden has no advantage, not even Trump. Biden is widely regarded as more likely to unite the country (55% to 36%) and manage racial inequality in the United States (55% to 38%). It is more reliable with a 13-point margin on the coronavirus outbreak (54% to 41%). More often it is seen as having a clear plan to solve the country’s problems (49% to 43%) and has the advantage of keeping Americans safe (50% to 45%). Wisconsin voters likely split equally over who will manage the economy best (from 49% Trump to 48% Biden) and who has the stamina and sharpness to be president (47% Trump to 44% Biden).
In both states, voters are more likely to express deep concern about the coronavirus outbreak in their community (34% in North Carolina, 33% in Wisconsin) than concerned about the impacts of racism (30% in North Carolina, 28% in Wisconsin), the economy (28% in North Carolina, 24% in Wisconsin) or the risk of crime (14% in North Carolina, 13% in Wisconsin). In both states, Biden voters express significantly deeper concerns about the coronavirus, racism, and the economy than Trump voters.
The polls were conducted entirely after the publication of exceptions from Bob Woodward’s latest book on Trump, as well as the release of tapes Woodward recorded of the president admitting early in the pandemic that Covid-19 was more deadly than it was. had hinted publicly.
Biden’s Wisconsin result is slightly stronger than other recent polls they have found. It fares better in this poll than in other recent Wisconsin results among women, senior voters and independents. Women and the elderly are more likely than others in the survey to express deep concern about the coronavirus outbreak (42% extremely worried among women versus 25% among men; 43% extremely concerned among those aged 65 or over versus 30% among those ages 64 or younger).
The poll also notes that Biden received higher approval ratings than Trump or Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers, a Democrat, for their response to Jacob Blake’s shooting in Kenosha. Of the likely voters, 48% approve of Biden’s response to events in Kenosha, 42% disapprove. For Trump, 42% approve and 54% disapprove, while Evers earns 42% approval and 47% disapproval. There is a racial divide in Trump and Biden’s approval of their response to Kenosha. Among whites in the state, 43% approve of Trump’s response, 44% of Biden. People of color, however, give Biden much higher approval numbers (50%) than Trump (16%).
Biden follows Trump into a group of seven suburban counties surrounding Milwaukee, a group that includes Kenosha; however, it lags far less than Hillary Clinton’s 20-point loss in 2016 (42% in those counties supported Biden, 53% Trump, compared to a 57% -Trump-37% margin. -Clinton in 2016).
In North Carolina, Trump holds a lead among likely white voters (58% to 38%) while more than nine out of 10 black voters support Biden (93% to 3% for Trump). Women prefer Biden (55% to 42% for Trump) while men break up for Trump (51% to 42%). Biden’s advantage among women in the state comes from women of color. White women prefer Trump, 55% to 42%, as do white men (60% to 34%).
Veterans make up a sizable share of North Carolina’s voter base, and here they prefer Trump, from 57 percent to 40 percent. Trump’s support is nearly on par with his 2016 position among veteran voters in the state for exit polls (59%), but Biden fares a little better than Clinton’s 33% in the group.
Overall, Trump’s approval ratings in the two states are negative. Of all adults, 51% disapprove and 43% approve in North Carolina; it’s 55% disapprove to 40% approve in Wisconsin.
North Carolina’s US Senate run is a disaster in the poll, with 47% of likely voters saying they support Democrat Cal Cunningham and 46% for incumbent Republican Thom Tillis. Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, has a head start in his re-election run, 53% support him, 44% his Republican challenger Dan Forest.
A majority of probable Wisconsin voters (53%) say they want to vote in person on election day, while 27% say they want to vote by mail and 19% using an absentee vote. Prospective North Carolina voters, however, are much more likely to plan to vote early or absent, with only 38% saying they want to vote on election day. A plurality, 42%, say they will vote in person in advance and 18% say they want to vote by post.
In both states, however, preferences on how to cast one’s vote are politicized. Less than a third of Biden supporters plan to vote on election day in both states (28% in Wisconsin, 22% in North Carolina), while among Trump supporters, a majority in both places say they will vote on 3. November (83% in Wisconsin, 57% in North Carolina). The overall quota that says it wants to vote on election day in North Carolina is greater than the quota that voted that way in 2016, and this is mainly due to Trump supporters. In 2016, about a third of the votes in the state were cast on election day. Of all the votes Trump received, 37% came from in-person voting on election day.
CNN polls were conducted by the SSRS by telephone September 9-13 among random samples of adults living in North Carolina and Wisconsin. In North Carolina, the results for the sample of 1,006 adults have a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points; is 3.8 points for 1,006 adults in Wisconsin. In North Carolina, 787 respondents were determined as likely voters, and those results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. For the likely 816 voters in Wisconsin, that’s roughly 4.2 points.