Joe Biden leads the beginning of the state by 6 percentage points, according to the average of the RealClearPolitics polls, and has led Trump in all 12 public polls published since the beginning of June.
“Joe Biden – his party is not in power – so by definition he is the candidate for change. This is a huge plus,” said Democratic Senator Bob Casey. “Regardless of what Hillary Clinton did with her campaign program, she was running after eight years as a Democratic president. So when you run after eight years from your party, you are not the candidate candidate. “
Democratic elected officials, party leaders and strategists in Pennsylvania said Biden is ahead because of Trump̵
They also claimed that Biden is supported by the fact that he is a Scranton native and former Delaware senator who has been covered for years by the Philadelphia media network. And they said Biden doesn’t anger the GOP or swing voters like Clinton – instead, he’s a moderate white man who rarely makes waves in a state that has elected more than his fair share of medium-intensity white male politicians.
“Hating Joe Biden doesn’t drive their Fox News base and viewers the way they do after Hillary and Nancy Pelosi and AOC,” said representative Brendan Boyle, who supported Biden on the day he launched his 2020 campaign. “You can make some assumptions and ask yourself why this is so. Is gender a factor? Is race a factor? I do not know. I have some suspicions. “
Trump’s nickname for Biden, “Sleepy Joe”, closely resembles his moniker for Casey during Senator 2018’s re-election campaign: “Sleeping Bob”. Casey, who defeated his opponent Lou Barletta by 13 percentage points, said that “there is something about that” idea that Pennsylvania voters like inconspicuous politicians. He added that a local columnist once “compared me to oatmeal”.
But for some Democrats, still affected by Trump’s explosion in 2016, it is a political negligence to count Trump.
“I don’t know how what happened in 2016 would not have healed any Pennsylvania Democrat from their swagger,” said John Fetterman, Lieutenant Democratic Governor of Pennsylvania. “At the end of the day, it’s no different from the trust you have with Clinton.”
In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania with 44,000 votes by taking a road that defied expectations: he won blue collar, often traditionally democratic areas in northeastern and northwestern Pennsylvania, rose in rural regions and misbehaved in the moderate suburbs of Philadelphia. Overall, it brought 8-point suburban voters and 10-point seniors to the state, according to exit polls.
One July FOX survey Pennsylvania found Biden leading Trump 26 points among suburban voters and 7 points among the elderly. Other polls show a closer race, such as a CNBC / Change Research poll that had Biden ahead of the 2-point status.
Many of Trump’s campaign aides and allies said polls – which in 2016 underestimated white voters without degrees, a block of votes that Trump did significantly better among Mitt Romney – are out again.
“They are wrong,” said Barletta, who was one of Trump’s first supporters in Congress. “I told the then candidate Trump two weeks before the election,” I don’t believe polls in Pennsylvania. They are wrong. “”
Some Republicans have said that the polls could be accurate, especially when it comes to Trump’s support among suburban voters, but that there is still time for Trump to recover largely because he still has the upper hand over the economy. Trump is also leading or polling with Biden on the matter.
“I think it will eventually come to the economy. Even if you take the pandemic into account, the implications of the pandemic will ultimately come down to the economy,” said Charlie Gerow, GOP strategist based in Harrisburg. “I’ve always been confident about President Trump’s prospects.”
Democratic officials have said they are wary of Trump’s strength over the economy. In an effort to support one of its clear weaknesses, Biden has spent the past few months outlining its economic recovery plans, including reviving the country’s manufacturing industry and increasing federal spending on American-made goods.
“I think the big challenge for our party continues to have only one economic message and I have invited the vice president’s team to do so,” said Casey. “They were already there, but I keep reminding them.”
To reduce Biden’s support between suburban and older voters, Trump’s campaign has spent at least $ 4.5 million on misleading advertisements across Pennsylvania claiming that the police will be rejected by a Biden administration. Biden has repeatedly claimed to be against the idea.
Representative Dwight Evans, a Philadelphia Democrat who represents a black-majority district, said he was concerned about the points, as well as Trump’s attempts to fuel fear of recent civil unrest and crime in the largest city in the state.
“When he talks about these beautiful suburbs and then says that democratic cities are not managed in the right way, he throws the codes out the window. It’s just obvious,” he said. “I don’t deny that this concerns me.”
Advertisements by the Trump team in Pennsylvania also attacked Biden’s past support for invoices and free trade agreements, strategies he used against Clinton in 2016 to reduce his support between black voters and the white working class.
With a look at western Pennsylvania’s natural gas industry, America First Action, a pro-Trump super PAC, aired commercials accusing Biden of wanting to eliminate fracking. Although Biden advocates banning new leases in federal land, he has not proposed banning fracking.
The announcements of the Biden campaign and a pro-Biden super PAC in the state have focused on Trump’s mismanagement of the coronavirus. The pro-Biden American Bridge 21st century super PAC also thwarted Trump’s points by accusing Biden of being weak with China with his announcement that he was charging Trump.
Trump’s team believes its base game in Pennsylvania is a strength: it has worked in the state for months, while the Biden team has only announced that it has hired a state manager in July.
“We are confident of where we are in the state right now. We have made an unprecedented effort here on the ground with hiring and personnel offices,” said Ted Christian, senior consultant for Trump’s Pennsylvania campaign. “We now have a maximum of 120 employees in the state. We have 29 offices. We have made nearly 4.4 million contacts with voters. And I can tell you that there is the energy that was here four years ago – and we have better infrastructure than we do.” .
Biden’s campaign declined to share the number of employees it hired in the state. Sinceré Harris, a senior adviser to the Biden campaign in Pennsylvania, said the state organized a successful game here on the ground before the Biden campaign started operations so that it could build on it.
If the former vice president maintained his position in Pennsylvania despite leaving later, he would somehow mirror the primary when Biden won states where he hadn’t even campaigned. Comparatively, candidates with alleged higher field operations such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren were unsuccessful.
In a call with reporters last month, Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien denounced the fact that Republicans have registered more voters than Democrats in Pennsylvania – about five times more – since 2016. The team said it is working to identify novice or infrequent voters who support Trump, something he did successfully in 2016.
“RNC has made a $ 350 million investment to renew our data program and, thanks to the rapid availability of staff, we are able to identify these specific pockets and voters,” said Christian. “And we believe there are still votes out there to be had.”
Many Democrats in Pennsylvania don’t buy it and remain cautiously optimistic.
“Come in mid-November, after the victory of Joe Biden, after the Democrats have won a considerable number of seats in the House and have probably regained the Senate, I think we will look at the poll for a year and go back to the 2020 race and say In fact, in an incredibly tumultuous year, things haven’t changed much in terms of public opinion, “said Boyle.