“What is the price of those Bitcoins you keep talking about?” a friend asks me. I look at my phone and the average is still around $ 9,200. “More or less like last month’s partner,” I replied.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) hasn’t moved nearly an inch in the past six weeks, barely moving 2% in both directions from its average price. Therefore, I’m starting to think it’s a stablecoin now.
Bitcoin’s current stablecoin period is reminiscent of early 2017
However, this long period of static pricing reminds me very much of early 2017, when Bitcoin stayed around $ 900 for the first three months of the year, followed by an explosive move of 300% in the second quarter, and then continued.
Daily crypto market performance. Source: Coin360.com
The question that comes to my mind now is whether we can really expect something like this to happen in 2020 now that half of the year is behind us or if Bitcoin has simply passed and is waiting to fall.
The downward trend of Bitcoin
We all know that the first quarter of 2020 has been brutal for Bitcoin. However, after the March Black Friday landfill, the lucky ones who bought the bottom have already seen a whopping 180% ROI on their investment.
It would be naive of anyone not to expect some of these people to make a profit, so a consolidation period is a completely natural thing to expect.
However, what makes BTC very different from other assets is the location the miners are in. They have 50% less Bitcoin to sell than before, and the effect of consolidation following the mini-upward run has led BTC / USD into a downward trend.
1 day BTC / USD chart. Source: TradingView
At the same time, Bitcoin is less than 1% away from the exit of this descending channel. The current price of Bitcoin is just under $ 9,300 and the resistance of the descending channel in the newspaper is only $ 9,350.
This also places central channel support around $ 8,900 and final support before reporting a major reduction to $ 8,350. From here, any hope of an immediate bull race would be lost.
The hopium approach
By zooming on the weekly table for Bitcoin and drawing the Fibonacci lines using the ATH 2017 peak on the bottom of 2019, we can see that BTC has been hovering around the 0.382 Fib for several weeks, sometimes crossing, sometimes crossing.
1 week BTC / USD chart. Source: TradingView
With Fibonacci trading, you consider the next levels as potential targets and, generally, once the 0.382 has been broken after rising by 0.236, the next level is 0.5 or 50% of Fib, which is located at $ 11,500.
If the $ 9,250’s 0.382 can become support in the coming week, then the bears are in trouble. Conversely, if the $ 8,350 support fails to hold, it is much longer for Bitcoin to seek new support at 0.236, which sets the target down to $ 7,000.
MACD shows signs of reversal
1 week BTC / USD MACD chart Source: TradingView
In last week’s technical analysis, the weekly MACD looked very “weak” and due to a bearish cross. A cross up or down on the weekly MACD are key points for Bitcoin. You just have to look through the price action history against the MACD to see that it is the only indicator you need to time your Bitcoin purchases and sales.
However, thanks to last week’s mini-alt season, interest in Bitcoin appears to be increasing, and this is reflected in the blue MACD line that changes its trajectory from down to up.
When the MACD opens like this on shorter time intervals, it is the trader’s worst nightmare if they have not been able to wait for confirmation as it is a very early sign of a turnaround. In other words, Bitcoin bulls are not yet ready to capitulate to bears.
Diversification, Tether up or HODL?
Tether Market Cap Source: Coin360
Normally during consolidation periods, Bitcoin traders have the option to park their profits made in Tether, offering them the luxury of easily buying the dip or returning to confirmation of a bullish reversal.
However, in a recent Forbes article about a formal investigation into Tether and his swift approach to a $ 10 billion market capitalization in the wake of Brock Pierce who recently announced his intentions to run for president of the United States, I would be nervous about any USDT amount right now.
As such, it seems likely that a large chunk of those 10 billion dollars parked in Tether will logically start heading towards Bitcoin and high-end altcoins. This would explain the recent wave of altcoins, as well as affect Bitcoin’s prospects in the near future.
If the price of Bitcoin can exceed $ 9,350, there are some key areas of resistance that need to be overcome before it can reach $ 11,500.
Firstly, there is a large sales wall around $ 9,500 on Binance, according to the heat map of Tensorcharts. After this level, attacking the multi-year resistance level of $ 10,500 looks like it may have returned to the cards, and with all of Tether’s mud, this is a scenario that looks promising enough.
Heatmap of the order book. Source: Tensorcharts
Using the same heatmap as Tensorcharts, there is a huge purchase order in addition to the $ 8,900 to $ 8,990 support. If this level is not valid, I would look at $ 8,350 as the next level for the daily descending channel to stay intact.
Breaking below $ 8,350 could open $ 7K BTC as a tough short-term reality. However, with Tether potentially off the table in the short term, I doubt bears will have a good week.
The opinions and opinions expressed here are exclusively those of @officiallykeith and do not necessarily reflect Cointelegraph’s views. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your research when making a decision.