Here’s what you need to know:
President Trump’s outspoken strategy for 2020 is less about improving his image outside his relatively small pogo of diehard supporters than about degrading confidence in the American political system – and fueling negative sentiment about Joseph R. Biden Jr.
It worked in 2016, when he managed to hurt Hillary Clinton’s position, which entered the race with high rates of disapproval.
Yet one of the most important changes in the dynamics of the 2020 campaign – and one of the most overlooked – is the fact that Biden’s position among voters has steadily risen throughout the summer and fall, despite Trump’s relentlessly caustic attacks.
While Mr. Trump Reducing the share of the electoral pie dominated coverage, Biden’s share – as measured by his percentage of votes in polls and voter approval polls – expanded silently and steadily. It’s an unmistakable sign that the race isn’t following Trump’s seek-and-destroy script.
The president’s approval rating is about 10 percentage points underwater, about 53 to 43 percent, according to various polling averages. The former vice president, by contrast, remained stable in the 1940s and 1950s in both voter preference and his share of the vote in head-to-head clashes with Trump.
While the race is still highly competitive in many battlefield states, Mr. Biden now holds a near double-digit national advantage and is peeking above the critical 50% threshold, a number that experts see as an indicator of a race the favor of the challenger.
“It’s hard to point out how rare it is for a presidential candidate in the modern era to have such a high share of votes at this stage,” Nate Cohn wrote in his daily polling analysis on Friday. “Just look back over the past decade of Real Clear Politics averages and you will find that there is only one case in which one candidate eclipsed Biden’s 52% in the last few months of a race: Barack Obama on Election Day 2008.”
Biden’s growing approval ratings have been spotted in a number of national and state polls, and were the centerpiece of a poll update provided Friday by the largest Democratic super PAC, Priorities USA.
Since September, Mr. Biden’s net approval rating among registered voters has grown from 42% to 51%, according to a poll of 2,019 probable voters in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from October 2 to 7. October of two Democratic polling firms working with the PAC.
These changes were particularly stark when it came to specific issues, where Biden showed strong improvements in his approach to the pandemic, social security, health care and the economy, the survey showed.
Guy Cecil, executive director of the PAC, told reporters that Mr. Biden’s wave of approval was, quite simply, a matter of his role model “responsible behavior” as opposed to Mr. Trump, and that that lead was reinforced by a flurry of pro-Biden announcements highlighting the contrast between the two men.
President Trump’s hopes of holding election rallies this weekend faded Friday after they were greeted with skepticism and alarm by outside medical experts, who wondered if the president’s end of isolation met Centers for Disease guidelines. Control and Prevention.
Mr. Trump had called the Sean Hannity show on Fox News Thursday night and said he wanted to hold a rally in Florida on Saturday and another in Pennsylvania on Sunday. This came after White House physician Dr. Sean P. Conley announced that Mr. Trump could safely “return to public engagements” on Saturday, a timeline that has been questioned by outside experts. Inside the White House, aides objected to Trump having external events this weekend and as of Friday morning he was not expected to resume campaign-style events until Monday at the earliest.
Outside medical experts have said that an inadequately accelerated return to the public for Mr. Trump could risk infecting others. And the resumption of public functions could worsen his conditions, which could further deteriorate in the coming days. Patients with Covid-19 may alternately worsen during the second week of their illness.
Based on the information provided, “No, I would not want to authorize him to initiate public engagements on Saturday,” said Dr. Phyllis Tien, an infectious disease physician at the University of California, San Francisco, where he conducts and advises on Covid-19. clinical studies.
If the president recently stopped dexamethasone, a steroid normally given only to seriously ill Covid-19 patients, his well-being could decline in the next couple of days, said Dr. Krutika Kuppalli, an infectious disease doctor based. in South Carolina.
Then there are the potential risks Trump could pose to others. According to C.D.C. guidelines, people with mild to moderate cases of Covid-19 most likely “remain infectious no more than 10 days after the onset of symptoms.” Dr. Conley’s statement cited Saturday as “Day 10 from Thursday’s diagnosis.”
Dr. Tien said she was skeptical of that assessment. The series of treatments Mr. Trump has received, he said, suggests that his illness was severe, which could extend the length of his recommended isolation to 20 days after the onset of symptoms.
Mr. Trump may be able to end his isolation early if he tested negative using a very accurate laboratory test, Dr. Tien said. But no such results were reported in Thursday’s note, which only mentioned an “advanced diagnostic trajectory”.
President Trump said Friday that it is a “shame” that there are no public results before election day from a Justice Department review of the origins of the investigation into a possible conspiracy between his 2016 campaign and Russian officials.
Mr. Trump, speaking during a two-hour radio interview with conservative host Rush Limbaugh, also revealed that his doctors had said at one point that he was entering a “very bad phase” in his battle against the coronavirus.
The interview was advertised as a virtual “rally”, in lieu of ones that Mr. Trump cannot hold right now while battling the virus. It was intended to show him capable of sustaining a lengthy interview.
When Mr. Trump was informed by Mr. Limbaugh of the lack of results from an investigation into the origins of the Russia inquiry before election day, Mr. Trump said, “If so, I am very disappointed.”
“I’ll tell it to your face,” said Attorney General William P. Barr, who insisted on indicting several opponents, including former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., in the election of the president. opponent. “It’s a shame. I think it’s a shame. It’s an embarrassment.”
Twitter, risking the ire of its best-known user, President Trump, on Friday said it would disable many of its routine features in an effort to control the spread of misinformation in the final weeks before the presidential election.
Twitter will make several notable changes.
Essentially, it will give users a timeout before they can hit the button to retweet a post from another account. A prompt will prompt them to add their own comment or context before sharing the original post.
It will disable the system that suggests posts based on someone’s interests and the activity of the accounts they follow. In their timelines, users will only see the contents of their following accounts and ads.
If users attempt to share content that Twitter has flagged as fake, a warning will alert them that they are about to share inaccurate information.
Most of the changes will occur on October 20 and will be temporary, Twitter said. Labels warning users not to share false information will start appearing next week. The company expects to wait until the presidential election result is clear before reactivating the features.
The changes could have a direct impact on Trump’s online business. Since returning to the White House on Monday after being hospitalized for the coronavirus, he has been on Twitter. On Tuesday evening, for example, he tweeted or retweeted posts from other accounts, about 40 times.
Social media companies have moved in recent months to combat the spread of disinformation around the election. Facebook and Google have pledged to ban political ads for an indefinite period after polls closed on November 3. Facebook also said a banner at the top of its news feed will warn users that no winners have been declared until news outlets have called the presidential race.
Companies are trying to prevent a repeat of the 2016 elections, when Russian agents used them to spread falsehoods and hyper-party content in an attempt to destabilize the American electorate.
Over the past year, Twitter has slowly removed parts of its service that have been used to spread false and misleading information. Jack Dorsey, the chief executive, announced last year that the company would no longer allow political advertising. Twitter has more aggressively verified misinformation, even by the president. Earlier this week, after Mr. Trump took to Twitter and misleadingly compared the coronavirus to the flu, Twitter added a note saying the post had violated its rules on spreading false information. and misleading about the virus.
Those fact-checks led to a backlash from the Trump administration. Mr. Trump, who has 87 million followers on Twitter, has called for the repeal of the legal protections that Twitter and other social media companies rely on.
The second Biden-Trump debate, originally scheduled for October 15 in Miami, will be held virtually or not at all, the Commission on Presidential Debates said Friday, citing security concerns over the coronavirus.
President Trump, who contracted the virus, demanded that the debate be restored to its original format, in person. Since Mr. Trump rejected a virtual debate, Joseph R. Biden Jr. pledged to attend an ABC News town hall that evening in Philadelphia.
So the Miami debate is, at least for now, effectively canceled.
The third debate is still scheduled for October 22 in Nashville. The Trump campaign is on board. Biden’s campaign agreed to participate, both as a one-on-one meeting with Mr. Trump, and in a town hall-style format in which both candidates answer voter questions.
Trump aides say the debate committee changed the Miami event to a virtual format to help Biden. The co-chair of the commission, Frank J. Fahrenkopf Jr., said Friday that this was not the case. He said officials at the Cleveland Clinic, which advises on health protocol, believe a remote format was the safest given Mr. Trump’s illness and uncertainty about his health.
“Our crew, our cameramen, our lighting crew, were very, very upset,” said Mr. Fahrenkopf in an interview with Fox News Radio host Brian Kilmeade. “They were on stage with the president in Cleveland. He wasn’t wearing a mask. They are angry, they are worried about their families “.
Mr. Kilmeade asked Mr. Fahrenkopf if the debate committee would consider having an in-person debate in Miami next week if Mr. Trump was healed by then. Mr. Fahrenkopf said the president’s doctors were in contact with the Cleveland Clinic and that Mr. Trump’s condition remained in doubt.
“We’re talking about something that would happen in less than a week,” Fahrenkopf said of the Miami debate. “At this point and right now, there is no evidence whatsoever that the president tested negative or not.” He also said the commission may have a hard time finding voters “who aren’t afraid” to share a stage with Mr. Trump at a Miami City Hall event.
“We have decided that we will do what is safe,” he said.
On Friday, Mr. Trump tweeted an attack on the scheduled Miami debate moderator Steve Scully of C-SPAN, calling him “a Never Trumper” and adding, “Fix !!!” There is no evidence that Mr. Scully is prejudiced against the president.
Some Trump supporters seized an overnight post on Scully’s Twitter account, in which the moderator appeared to be communicating with Anthony Scaramucci, Trump’s former communications director and now a keen critic of the president.
C-SPAN said in a statement that Mr. Scully “believes his account has been hacked” and that the debate committee “is investigating with the help of the authorities.”
The moderator of the October 22 Nashville debate is Kristen Welker of NBC News.
Spokeswoman Nancy Pelosi, raising questions about President Trump’s suitability to rule, introduced legislation on Friday morning that would create a bipartisan group of outside experts to assess his mental and physical health and advise Congress if his powers should be removed. by force under the 25th Amendment.
The measure has no chance of being promulgated under Trump, whose signature would be required to make it law. A version was introduced before the president was hospitalized with the coronavirus, but in publicly presenting it now, Ms. Pelosi, who suggested that the drugs the president received to treat the virus may have affected her mental state, he is moving to draw attention to the problem.
“A president’s suitability for office must be determined by science and facts,” Ms. Pelosi said. “This legislation applies to future presidents, but we are reminded of the need for action by the health of the current president.”
The president raged against the idea, calling Ms. Pelosi “Crazy Nancy” and accusing her of organizing a coup. Kayleigh McEnany, the White House press officer, on Friday called the measure “an absurd proposal” and argued that Ms. Pelosi was “projecting”.
“The only one who has to look at the 25th amendment is Nancy Pelosi herself,” Ms. McEnany said in Fox & Friends. (The 25th amendment applies only to presidents, not members of Congress).
The measure, introduced by Representative Jamie Raskin, a Democrat from Maryland, would create an 11-member commission of health experts, doctors and former senior executive officials, such as a former president, to report to Congress on the president’s competence. Leading Democratic and Republican leaders in the House and Senate would each select members.
Republicans blew up the legislation as an attempt to overturn the November election results.
“Right here these past three weeks before the election, I think these kinds of wild comments should be largely discounted,” Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, said Friday.
MIAMI – Although the crash of the Florida voter registration website in the hours leading up to Monday night’s deadline may have prevented thousands of new voters from registering, a federal judge on Friday refused to order the state to reopen registration to recover. lost time.
The judge, Mark E. Walker of the Tallahassee Federal District Court, harshly criticized Secretary of State Laurel M. Lee, Florida’s top electoral official and appointed by Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican.
But he concluded that the extended deadline would overwhelm county election supervisors with voting already underway, pointing to the state’s infamous election history.
“Despite the fact that cinemas across the country remain closed, somehow, I feel like I’ve seen this movie before,” Judge Walker’s 29-page ruling began. “Less than a month away from Election Day, with the first postal ballots starting to count, Florida has done it again.”
Judge Walker, appointed by President Barack Obama, harshly criticized the state for having “hastily” implemented what he called a “half measure”: announcing, at noon on Tuesday, that the deadline would only be extended until 7pm. . that day.
“This left less than seven hours for prospective voters to somehow get to know the news and ensure they are properly filing their voter registration applications, all while partaking in their normal day-to-day, school, family and care responsibilities.” wrote the judge.
The website crashed on Monday evening after 49,000 unique users attempted to register, creating a bottleneck that gave them error messages. Users then repeatedly hit the update, leading to more than a million requests, which overwhelmed the system.
Judge Walker compared the new registrations to 2018 data and found that the combined totals on Monday and Tuesday were about 21,000 fewer than they would have expected had the website had no technical issues.
Several voter rights groups said the extension was too short for people to be properly informed. “Confidence in the election requires that people who are eligible and follow the rules can vote,” Stuart C. Naifeh, a lawyer for the plaintiffs, said at the hearing.
But ultimately, Judge Walker wrote that he was worried about causing havoc. Two county election supervisors have filed statements on behalf of the state saying another extension could be problematic.
“Another extension, given the circumstances, will serve to reinforce the confusion and distrust voters have around this election, further reinforcing the rampant disinformation and disinformation campaigns that are already undermining the November general election,” wrote Mark. Earley, the Leon County Supervisor.
Voting rights groups said in a statement Friday morning: “Unfortunately, this is another episode in Florida’s long history of voter suppression.”
Democratic group MoveOn is running a couple of announcements in the battlefield state of … South Carolina? You are right. Encouraged by an influx of money following the death of Judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg, MoveOn will air two announcements in support of Jaime Harrison, the former president of the state’s Democratic Party, as he challenges Senator Lindsey Graham.
That MoveOn is targeting South Carolina with less than a month until Election Day highlights how optimistic Democrats are about Senate contests across the country. As part of its $ 2 million purchase, MoveOn is also targeting races in Maine and Arizona.
The two MoveOn ads in South Carolina have an almost identical message: that Mr. Graham is “fake”, that he has changed and that he is no longer the best choice for South Carolinians. “We deserve a senator with integrity, a senator who knows the community he serves,” says the voiceover. “Lindsey Graham is not that senator.”
The announcement plays on a consistent theme among Democrats regarding Mr. Graham, once known for his ability to broker bipartisan deals but more recently one of President Trump’s staunchest supporters and a reliable Democrat-basher. Mr. Graham leads the Senate Judiciary Committee and in 2016 said he would refuse to confirm a candidate for the Republican Supreme Court in a presidential election year. He is now working to ram a Trump-backed candidate ahead of the election.
Checking the facts
The announcement includes headlines on Mr. Graham to repeal the Affordable Care Act and how Covid-19 survivors could lose their insurance or pay more if the act is overturned.
Both of these titles are true.
“If we can get the House back and keep our Senate majority, and President Trump wins re-election, I can promise you that not only will we repeal Obamacare, we will do it smartly where South Carolina would be the biggest winner,” said the Mr. Graham to a South Carolina radio station in 2019. And if the Supreme Court overturns the Affordable Care Act, millions of Americans with pre-existing conditions could be disqualified from purchasing health insurance or paying much more premiums. Pre-existing conditions could include coronavirus, which can have long-term health consequences.
Where it runs
A spokesperson said the TV commercials should “go live soon” in South Carolina markets.
Mr. Graham was once considered a safe incumbent, but recent polls show a tightening rush that Cook’s non-partisan political report called a jolt on Wednesday. Mr. Harrison drew attention last week for bringing his plexiglass shield to his first debate with Mr. Graham; the two argue again tonight.
The Biden campaign announced the release of five new announcements – targeting Hispanic voters, rural communities, working families, seniors and veterans – in 16 states, including all major battlefields.
The campaign wouldn’t say how much it is spending on commercials.
But the new announcements are part of the vanguard of a massive autumn advertising blitz that is already overtaking Trump’s campaign in most key battlefield states.
In addition to hammering the economy and health care – the core issues that Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s team sees as the path to victory – the announcements also include timely references to President Trump’s disparaging remarks about the military, reported by The Atlantic and blatantly denied by the president.
The ads, a series of 30- and 60-second commercials, are a mix of positive and negative messages, emphasizing Biden’s record and slamming Mr. Trump.
They are also aimed at a hybrid audience of voters. One of the commercials that will air nationally, entitled “More Important”, is aimed at Latins and veterans.
It features direct camera testimony from retired Army veteran Paul Cruz, who calls Mr. Trump for calling fallen soldiers “fools and losers,” according to The Atlantic’s report.
Another of the ads returns to familiar themes of Democratic political advertising – protecting Social Security and Medicare and accusing Trump of endangering those programs – as Biden’s campaign tries to gain its surprise advantage among older voters.
There are 25 days to election day. Here are the presidential candidates and vice-presidents times for Friday 9 October. All times are Eastern time.
Noon: Holds a “virtual rally” on the Rush Limbaugh radio show.
Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.
1:20 pm: Greet constituents and community leaders at the East Las Vegas Community Center.
4.15pm: Speak at a “Las Vegas Drive-In Event” at Southeast Career Technical Academy, Las Vegas.
Vice President Mike Pence
Senator Kamala Harris
Conoscete bene la storia: non un singolo sondaggio pubblico nel 2016 ha mostrato Donald J. Trump che ha battuto Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin, e gli esperti hanno suggerito che non aveva quasi nessuna possibilità. FiveThirtyEight gli ha dato meno di una possibilità su sei di vincere lo stato.
Ma dopo che i voti sono stati contati, con l’affluenza in calo nelle aree democratiche chiave, Trump ha ottenuto una vittoria con meno di 30.000 voti.
Quest’anno, ancora una volta, praticamente ogni sondaggio ha mostrato che il democratico, Joseph R. Biden Jr., ha almeno un leggero vantaggio su Trump. Un sondaggio del New York Times / Siena College del mese scorso ha dato al signor Biden un vantaggio di cinque punti percentuali tra i probabili elettori. I sondaggi condotti da allora dalla CNN e dalla NBC News / Marist College hanno dato al signor Biden un vantaggio di 10 punti.
E con il coronavirus che infuria ora in Wisconsin, in particolare nella regione nord-orientale politicamente competitiva, Trump affronta una dura battaglia per ripetere la sua vittoria di quattro anni fa.
“Certamente, con il forte aumento dei casi qui, è all’ordine del giorno per gli elettori”, ha detto Charles Franklin, uno scienziato politico che gestisce il sondaggio della Marquette Law School, che è visto come il sondaggio politico definitivo nello stato. “La sua gestione del Covid sembra avere un effetto maggiore sul voto della gente rispetto all’economia o alla sua gestione delle proteste”.
E la preoccupazione per la pandemia è aumentata di recente. Più di sei elettori su 10 in Wisconsin in un recente sondaggio di Marquette si sono descritti come almeno abbastanza preoccupati, incluso il 27% che ha dichiarato di essere molto preoccupato, rispetto al 21% del mese scorso. Il 50 per cento degli elettori del Wisconsin ha dichiarato di non aspettarsi che il virus fosse sotto controllo per almeno un altro anno, in contrasto con l’insistenza di Trump sul fatto che sia già gestito in modo efficace.
New polls show that President Trump’s support is collapsing nationally, as he alienates women, seniors and suburbanites.
He is trailing not just in must-win battlegrounds but according to private G.O.P. surveys, he is repelling independents to the point where Mr. Biden has drawn closer in solidly red states, including Montana, Kansas and Missouri, people briefed on the data said.
Nowhere has Mr. Trump harmed himself and his party more than across the Sun Belt, where the electoral coalition that secured a generation of Republican dominance is in danger of coming apart.
“There are limits to what people can take with the irresponsibility, the untruthfulness, just the whole persona,” said Jeff Flake, the former Republican senator from Arizona. Mr. Flake is crossing party lines to support Mr. Biden, who made his first visit of the general election to Arizona on Thursday.
Many of the Sun Belt states seemingly within Mr. Biden’s reach resisted the most stringent public-health policies to battle the coronavirus. As a result, states like Arizona, Georgia and Texas faced a powerful wave of infections for much of the summer, setting back efforts to revive commercial activity.
Mr. Biden is mounting an assertive campaign and facing rising pressure to do more in the historically Republican region. He is buttressed by a fund-raising gusher for Democratic candidates, overwhelming support from people of color and defections from the Republican Party among college-educated whites in and around cities like Atlanta, Houston and Phoenix.
“Cities in states like Arizona and Texas are attracting young people, highly educated people, and people of color — all groups that the national Republican Party has walked away from the last four years,” said Mayor David F. Holt of Oklahoma City, a Republican. “This losing demographic bet against big cities and their residents is putting Sun Belt states in play.”
President Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. remain locked in a tight race in Georgia, and the state’s two Senate seats, which are both up for grabs, are competitive, according to a poll of state voters released Friday.
The survey, conducted by the University of Georgia, shows Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden in a statistical tie: Mr. Trump has 47.5 percent support and Mr. Biden has 46.4 percent, a difference well within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Only 3.4 percent of registered voters said they were undecided.
The poll also shows Senator David Perdue, the Republican incumbent, leading Jon Ossoff, his Democratic challenger, by seven percentage points in one of the state’s two critical Senate races.
In the other Senate race, Senator Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed to her seat late last year by Gov. Brian Kemp, is in a special election that includes candidates from both parties. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent support in November, the race will proceed to a January runoff between the top two candidates, which could prove important in a narrowly divided Senate.
The Rev. Dr. Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, leads the entire field, according to the poll, with 28 percent of voters saying they would back him. Ms. Loeffler is in second-place, with roughly 22 percent support. She is shown to be only narrowly ahead of another Republican, Representative Doug Collins, who garnered about 21 percent support.
Ms. Loeffler’s and Mr. Collins’s combined 43 percent support indicates that a plurality of Georgia’s voters support a Republican for the seat.
Matt Lieberman, the son of former Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut, trails the field with only 3 percent support and is facing calls to withdraw rather than split the Democratic vote.
The University of Georgia poll of 1,106 likely voters was conducted by telephone from Sept. 27 to Oct. 6, a period that included the first presidential debate and the news that Mr. Trump had tested positive for the coronavirus.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of Georgia voters conducted last month similarly found Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden to be tied; Mr. Perdue was up in his race against Mr. Ossoff by 3 points; and Ms. Loeffler was leading the field in the special election with 23 percent support.
States like Georgia and Texas have long been seen by Democrats as places where demographic change could lead to future electoral success and help carve new paths to the presidency. With Georgia’s 16 electoral votes on offer, an upset win for Mr. Biden there would open up several ways to amass the 270 electoral votes the victor will need.
A federal judge has approved a plan pushed by voting rights groups to expand the number of ballot drop boxes in Ohio, ruling that state officials failed to prove claims that extra drop boxes would lead to voter fraud.
The ruling Thursday night, by Judge Dan Aaron Polster of the U.S. District Court in Cleveland, cleared the way for officials in Cuyahoga County — the state’s second-largest jurisdiction, home to Cleveland and a Democratic stronghold — to place ballot drop boxes at six library branches.
While the ruling focused on one county, it could lead to additional drop boxes being placed in other locations around the state.
Kristen Clarke, chief executive of the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights, one of the voting rights groups that filed the lawsuit, called the added drop boxes “crucial” in allowing safe voting during the pandemic.
“The court’s order protects the right to vote for tens of thousands of Ohioans, especially Black voters and people of color who disproportionately reside in some of the state’s major population centers,” Ms. Clarke said in a statement, noting long lines at early voting locations in Cleveland. “No voter should have to sacrifice their health and well-being to cast their ballot.”
Secretary of State Frank LaRose, Ohio’s top elections official, said he would appeal the decision to the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals. “The place to make changes in how we run our elections is the statehouse, not the courthouse,” Mr. LaRose, a Republican, said in a statement Friday morning.
Mr. LaRose had limited ballot drop boxes to one per county and required that they be situated outside county elections offices. Mr. LaRose had approved one extra drop box in Cuyahoga County at the request of local elections officials.
Among reasons for the limits, Mr. LaRose argued, was that drop boxes added to the risk of fraud and abuse. But Judge Polster found that Mr. LaRose had failed to support that claim, adding that “any drop box location can be monitored 24/7.”
Lawyers for both the Trump campaign and the Ohio Republican Party had joined the case on Mr. LaRose’s side.