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NFL week 5 picks, odds: Cowboys keep Giants at bay in shootout, Bengals scare Ravens and other winners

Just when you thought things couldn’t get weirder in 2020, we now have ourselves an absolutely insane week that could include more games played or not for various reasons. There is a virus that continues to spread across the country and could affect up to four different games for various reasons. And there’s a hurricane that could cause at least one game to move.

It’s wild out there in the NFL right now, and these are unprecedented times. But that won’t stop us from making choices every single week, so let’s move on to the Week 5 selections.

What choices can you confidently make in week 5? And which Super Bowl competitor goes down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50% of the simulations, all from the model exceeding $ 7,300 in its top-rated picks.

Tampa Bay (3-1
) to Chicago (3-1)

Thursday, 8:20 pm ET (Fox)
Diffusion point: Buccaneers -3.5

I don’t like getting into the habit of lazy journalism. Calling a team a 3-0 fraudulent club and asking them to lose 24-3 and then almost happening, though, makes me want to double down and just vanish the Bears in a BIG WAY here. If only for Bears fan mentions. This line fell like crazy, possibly due to injuries the Bucs are facing up front right now. I’m nothing but true to my brand though. Bucs roll the Bears here and Tom Brady gets a very small revenge against Nick Foles.

Choose: Buccaneers 24, Bears 3

Carolina (2-2) to Atlanta (0-4)

1 pm. ET (Fox)
Diffusion point: Hawks -2

I understand perfectly because the Falcons are favorites here. They are home, they are desperate, they have a good offense (we were told) and, um, is that all? The Panthers are just playing football better right now. Carolina’s defense has more rookies that have a major impact and may be better than what the Falcons are trotting. We have to assume that Julio Jones is not playing this game. I don’t know if Calvin Ridley will be shut down like he did Monday night in this matchup, but the Panthers will be able to match whatever Atlanta pulls out and then some.

Choose: Panthers 31, Falcons 28

Jacksonville (2-2) to Houston (0-4)

1 pm. ET (CBS)
Diffusion point: Texans -6

This absolutely reeks of a classic dead cat bounce game for Texans. You don’t fire your manager for four weeks into the season without a layup on the other side. And when you fire your coach, everyone realizes they have a frontline job. They improve their game: Deshaun Watson and Will Fuller could go crazy here against a very questionable Jaguars defense. David Johnson will also want to prove himself. The Jags should score points – I really like the Over in this game because of how bad the teams are – but the Texans will be able to score at will here if they don’t perform the same horrible old bout. Bill O’Brien kept trotting out. I don’t think that will be the case, and I foresee a monstrous game of Watson here.

Choose: Texans 35, Jaguars 24

Arizona (2-2) to N.Y. Jets (0-4)

1 pm. ET (fox)
Diffusion point: Cardinals -7

This is pretty simple: you can’t bet on Jets. Never. They refuse to cover. They refuse to be competent. They may have Le’Veon Bell back, but in the meantime they’re downgrading to Joe Flacco. Arizona has been doing very badly in the past couple of weeks and Kyler Murray’s deep ball accuracy in weeks 3 and 4 should be a big concern. The Kenyan Drake doesn’t look like the dynamic rusher we saw last year. It’s okay to have questions about cards, but New York is unbeatable.

Choose: Cardinals 28, Jets 14

Philadelphia (1-2-1) to Pittsburgh (3-0)

1 pm. ET (fox)
Diffusion point: Steelers -7

This is a giant line and it’s easy to pick the Steelers here. The Eagles and the whole NFC East are terrible. I have some concerns about the Philly D-line matchup against the Steelers’ O-line. And the Steelers had their agenda unnecessarily overturned with the Titans dealing with the COVID-19 situation. There is a real opportunity for the Steelers to dunk and dunk early, throw a few shots into a questionable secondary, score early and then force Carson Wentz to throw into a difficult secondary. If the game’s script is turned upside down, the Eagles are a live dog. If not, the Steelers should roll.

Choose: Steelers 28, Eagles 14

Buffalo (4-0) to Tennessee (3-0)

1 pm. ET (CBS)
Diffusion point: OFF

Who knows if you play this game. At the time of writing, who the hell knows. Some people are demanding that the Titan season be completely canceled. Is absurd. But the league needs to hammer Tennessee if it finds that the Titans have flaunted protocols and potentially ruined the season for more teams. In a way, I would like to bring the Titans here in a “goddamn man” way as they continue to undergo major league scrutiny and everyone else training outside the facility, but the Bills are too good a team to fade and Defense of Tennessee is not good at all right now.

Choose: Bill 31, Titans 14

Cincinnati (1-2-1) to Baltimore (3-1)

1 pm. ET (CBS)
Diffusion point: Ravens -13.5

Are the Bengals the best 1-2-1 team in NFL history? I joke, I joke. Kind of – Joe Burrow is terribly great. This guy is so ridiculously lucid for a rookie quarterback (especially one drafted in a pandemic!) On a team with a really bad offensive line. The Bengals probably won’t win this game, but the Ravens are dealing with an injury to Lamar Jackson, and I would expect to see a good dose of Robert Griffin III in the second half if Baltimore has an advantage. Burrow loves the back door, so I’ll take the two touchdowns here and watch him wander around late.

Choose: Ravens 28, Bengals 21

THERE. Rams (2-2) to Washington (0-4)

1 pm. ET (Fox)
Diffusion point: Rams -7

Are you ready for the KYLE ALLEN experience? Dwayne Haskins was benched this week by Ron Rivera, in a move clearly designed to send a message to the second-year quarterback, with Haskins not even relegated to a reserve role, but instead placed as a third-series quarterback behind Alex Smith. . Allen won his first four games with the Panthers last year and the same coaching staff, so it’s not impossible to see a shot in the arm from the free agent. He knows the offense, is willing to break free in a few pitches, and there’s a potential rebound (back?) For the Washington offense here Dudes Getting Fired / Put On Notice.

Choose: Rams 17, Washington 14

Las Vegas (2-2) to Kansas City (4-0)

1 pm. ET (CBS)
Diffusion point: Chiefs -13

Another game that is absolutely a “maybe” played this week, thanks to COVID-19 concerns with both teams. The Raiders had a positive test – and were disciplined for attending a Darren Waller benefit without masks and while mingling with fans – and the Chiefs just played the Patriots. The last time we saw Patrick Mahomes, he was getting a hug on the pitch from Stephon Gilmore, who has since tested positive for coronavirus. There are many reasons to believe that the NFL could postpone this game with all that is going on. If it’s is played and everyone is healthy, I expect the Chiefs to go wild here. Andy Reid dominates the Raiders against the spread, going 10-4 ATS since joining KC in 2013. The Chiefs are on a HEATER right now, going 11-1-1 in their last 13 games against the spread as well.

Choose: Chiefs 42, Raiders 21

Miami (1-3) to San Francisco (2-2)

4:05 PM ET (fox)
Diffusion point: 49ers -9

The Dolphins are not a very good team, whether they put Tua in or let Ryan Fitzpatrick play. They would always be a year or two apart, despite the offseason hype this year brought. But San Francisco is just banged up, man. Kyle Shanahan doesn’t seem inclined to increase the attack and depending on who plays quarterback for them, he may not even have the option. I think he’d love to run a ton and get away with a win here. The low-scoring relationship with Miami finding backdoor cover makes a lot of sense.

Choose: 49ers 24, Dolphins 17

N.Y. Giants (0-4) to Dallas (1-3)

4:25 PM ET (CBS)
Diffusion point: Cowboys -9.5

The rare NFC East game on CBS! The Cowboys are a very, very, VERY desperate team on number 1-3, with Jerry Jones already breathing down Mike McCarthy’s neck. But this game is a little different, since it’s the Jason Garrett Revenge Bowl. Garrett was fired from Dallas, replaced by McCarthy and then hitched in New York as the G-Men offensive coordinator. Who is most motivated here with Garrett’s situation? Garrett, of course, would LOVE to take revenge on Dallas for firing him by posting a huge match for Daniel Jones. But McCarthy better be motivated not to let Garrett hit him. It would be very bad. I think the Giants are here, but the Cowboys will win.

Choose: Cowboys 41, Giants 34

Indianapolis (3-1) to Cleveland (3-1)

4:25 PM ET (CBS)
Diffusion point: Colts -1.5

It is entirely possible that I am an idiot here for chasing the Colts as street favorites against what is shaping up to be a good Browns team. Indy hasn’t played anyone worthwhile yet, but the Browns are really banged in this place. Nick Chubb is on IR and Kareem Hunt has been limited in practice. If they can’t run the way they want – and it’s going to be harder against the Colts, by the way – then I think Indy can flip the script and force this game on Baker Mayfield’s arm. If so, the Colts should have no problem taking care of travel affairs in a low-scoring relationship between playoff contenders.

Choose: Colts 21, Browns 17

Denver (1-3) to New England (2-2)

4:25 PM ET (CBS)
Diffusion point: OFF

Another game with COVID complications and an uncertainty that they will play this bout too. For now, let’s assume the Pats are pretty substantial favorites, regardless of whether Cam Newton plays or not (if they play, they’re probably the 7 to 10 point favorites). I love New England here, with or without Gilmore playing (probably without). The Broncos will bring out Drew Lock or Brett Rypien against a Bill Belichick defense when on the road, and that could be a problem considering the young quarterback’s fights against Belichick over the years. The pats should generate some turnovers, run the ball effectively, and put Denver here.

Choose: Patriots 21, Broncos 10

Minnesota (1-3) to Seattle (4-0)

8:20 PM ET (NBC)
Diffusion point: Seahawks -7.5

After the last time these two teams played Seattle in prime time with Kirk Cousins ​​as the dog, I swore to myself that I would never choose Vikings in this place again. So I won’t. Minnesota won’t open the crime and Seattle will drop bombs.

Choose: Seahawks 35, Vikings 24

THERE. Chargers (2-2) to New Orleans (2-2)

Monday, 8:15 pm ET (ESPN)
Diffusion point: Hawks -2

I’m still not sure if this game will be played in New Orleans or Indianapolis (the Colts have offered to let the game take place there in case Hurricane Delta becomes too much of a problem), but I don’t think it matters. The Saints are dynamite in October, riding 13 games against the spread record in the month. They need this win to keep up with the Buccaneers, and the Chargers will trot a rookie quarterback against a defense with something to prove.

Choose: Saints 34, Chargers 17

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