It seems, for now, that President Trump has recovered somewhat after hitting bottom.
The president was at a low point against former Vice President Joe Biden, but in the past month, while Biden still has an advantage, the landscape has soured, according to the latest analysis from NPR Electoral College.
The biggest change is that Florida has tightened in the month and a half since our last analysis and is back in the raise category. This means that, including states leaning towards Biden, it is just below the 270-vote threshold needed to win the presidency. He currently has an advantage of 268 to 1
What have we changed
Florida from Lean D to Toss Up
2nd District of Nebraska from Lean R to Toss Up
Virginia from Lean D to Likely D
New Mexico from Lean D to Likely D
We’ve only made a few changes, but one major one: Florida returns to its traditional place as a skid state. While Biden maintains a slight lead in this field, Trump has gained about 4 percentage points in polling averages since late July.
A new poll from Monmouth University in Florida pushed Biden up 5 points in registered voters, and an NBC / Marist poll blocked the race at 48% each among probable voters.
Polls showed contradictory results when it came to Latins. Monmouth had Biden with a big lead among the Latins, but still underperforming what Hillary Clinton achieved with the group in 2016. This is something that is also reflected on the ground, as Democrats are concerned they can register enough Latin voters. during the coronavirus pandemic.
Both polls showed Trump and Biden splitting the elders. This is bad news for Trump, as he won them by a large margin in Florida in 2016. This is something Republicans are concerned about, not just in the presidential election but also in the vote.
Biden underperformed with Latinos but fared too much with 65-year-old voters and more was something seen consistently this year. How these unpredictable changes end up happening is unclear and could mean volatility for which voters turn out.
Jim Watson / AFP via Getty Images
2nd District of Nebraska
Trump won Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District by 2 points in 2016. Second Ms. Karen Pence and Lara Trump, the wife of Trump’s son Eric, found the presidency in this Omaha-area district in the past month. Democratic sections of the district have registered Democrats since 2016 faster than Republicans in right-wing areas have. And the rush to Congress right now is neck and neck.
Virginia and New Mexico
Demographics continue to be democratic in Virginia. In a passage from 2016, there are now nearly as many whites with a college degree than without in the state, as the population of Asian Americans also continues to grow. New Mexico also had a democratic trend, with 40% of voters in the state of being Latin Americans in 2016, according to exit polls.
In both states, Biden has a double-digit lead in the poll average.
What we haven’t changed
Arizona remains Toss Up, but Biden has an advantage
Biden has been driving in Arizona since March, but his margin is still pretty tight. There haven’t been a ton of good polls, although a Fox News poll sent Biden up 9 points with likely voters. If other surveys show similar results, it could be a status moving into the Lean D column.
In Georgia, Trump and Biden change positions
Not much has changed in Georgia. The state remains close. Biden was ahead in mid-July, but Trump is now in the lead, getting back to where things were earlier in the year.
Iowa remains as Lean R.
Iowa has moved a couple of points in Trump’s favor on average, although Trump and Biden are within 2 points of each other. While polls indicate a statistical tie, Trump has won here, and it is a state with a high white population, with no college education, which gives Trump an advantage for now.
Ethan Miller / Getty Images
Ohio remains Toss Up, but we’re watching
There haven’t been many polls in Ohio, but Trump has earned about 4 points in polls over the past two months, giving him a slight edge. Trump won it in 2016, and given its high population of whites without a college degree, Ohio remains a state where Trump could have an advantage.
Pennsylvania remains as Lean D.
The poll average shows that the race has tightened a few points but that Biden is still ahead. And better polls showed a wider than average margin. The tightening is something to watch to see if Trump will make more forays in the next couple of weeks.
Texas remains Lean R
Trump and Biden are statistically linked in Texas, according to polls. And Biden continues to outperform where Clinton was in 2016. But there haven’t been many positive polls in the state this cycle; no Democrat has won the state in presidential elections since 1976; and Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to a state office since 1994. Let’s see where the race will be in a couple of weeks with better polls.
Wisconsin remains Toss Up
Right now, this state may be a tip of the ladder for Biden, according to polls, but a Marquette Law School poll had an interesting finding that should worry Democrats: Among registered voters, Biden is up 6 points, but among the probable voters, which was reduced to 4 points. With all the volatility of the current state, its past voting performance (Trump won it briefly), and the fact that it has one of the highest white and uneducated populations in the swinging states, it remains in the rebel category for now.
Other places to look
Kansas, Montana and South Carolina
Let me be clear: these are still all places Trump is likely to win, but it is noteworthy for the national climate that in all three, Trump’s lead is in the single-digit average of the polls.
For more information on our methodology and possible scenarios for the paths to victory for Biden and Trump, check out our first survey of the constituency in June.