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What New York City doctors predict for coronavirus this fall, as positive rates rise

New York following the devastating budget of coronavirus in spring – the once center of the outbreak appears to be at a dangerous time again, with the rate of positive cases in the city once again rising. “data-reactid =”

; 12 “> After a summer of life, life feels a little more normal in New York after the devastating coronavirus toll in the spring: the center of the epidemic seems to be once again at a dangerous time with the rate of positive cases in the city once again on the rise.

Threshold of 3% last week, marking the city’s highest daily positivity rate since June and climbing to 8.4% in some neighborhoods. “data-reactid =” 13 “> The city’s daily positivity rate – which was around 1% for months – passed the 3% mark last week, marking the highest daily positivity rate recorded by the city ​​from June and climbing up to 8.4% in some neighborhoods.

rose up to 71%), the increase has warned experts. “data-reactid =” 14 “> While those numbers pale from spring, when tests were hard to find (and the city’s positivity rate soared to 71%), the rise has warned experts.

according to Johns Hopkins University. The World Health Organization recommends that governments get theirs positivity test threshold below 5%. “data-reactid =” 15 “> A high positivity rate can be a sign that a city is only testing its sickest patients and cannot cast a net wide enough to accurately capture community transmission, according to Johns Hopkins University The World Health The organization recommends that governments get the positive test threshold below 5%.

New York doctors interviewed by ABC News recounted the chaotic environment of emergency medicine in the spring, detailed the simple measures New Yorkers and others could take to try to stop the next epidemic, and lashed out at anti-sentiment. -scientific who they say makes their job stronger.

New York’s brutal spring

PHOTO: In this April 9, 2020 photo, medical staff move a deceased patient to a refrigerated truck that serves as a shift morgue at Brooklyn Hospital Center in New York. (Angela Weiss / AFP via Getty Images, FILE)

Julie John was working as an internal medicine physician in a New Jersey hospital when the pandemic erupted in New York and New Jersey this spring. Units at his hospital were quickly overrun with COVID-19 patients, and hospital staff struggled to procure enough personal protective equipment to protect themselves from the virus. “That was our world,” said John, who contracted the virus in March. “Going through myself made me stronger and more determined to make sure no one else got sick from it,” she said.

“Every day was like a mass moving accident,” said Dr. Robert Glatter, an emergency medicine physician at Lenox Hill Hospital in Manhattan of the spring. Glatter didn’t know what to expect every day when he got to the hospital, how many patients would be hospitalized, what the intensity of the work was, if there was an increase.

“Things were happening very fast,” said Dr. Syra Madad, senior director of the special pathogen program at the city’s hospital system, NYC Health + Hospitals. “It was hard to predict. You never knew what the next day would be like. Everyone was trying to do their best at the moment.”

Prolonged uncertainty was stressful and induced anxiety. “It was continuous, sporadic, and you couldn’t let your guard down,” added Glatter.

Despite the efforts of health workers, the brutal spate of infections and hospitalizations has resulted in nearly 20,000 deaths from the virus in New York City. “We don’t want this to happen again,” Madad said.

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Six months later, New York doctors say they feel better prepared to fight the virus. Scientific understanding of the novel coronavirus and the disease it causes has grown tremendously since March, when doctors didn’t fully understand how transmissible COVID-19 was and were unaware of the racial disparities in infections and death rates.

New York City doctors and hospital managers. “We have a lot more tools in our toolbox for caring for COVID-19 patients,” Madad said. “Doctors are more in tune. They know the early telltale signs and can intervene sooner.” “Data-reactid =” 36 “> Through trial and error, healthcare professionals have developed best practices for treating COVID-19, such as proning or turning patients on their stomachs, which can make it easier for them to breathe. This is invaluable information for New York City doctors and hospital executives. “We have many more tools in our toolbox to care for COVID-19 patients,” Madad said. They are more in tune. They know the early signs. detectors and can intervene earlier “.

“We are much better than where we were six months ago,” added John.

Double the fundamentals in the face of rising infections

PHOTO: In this photo from September 1, 2020, people are wearing protective masks while shopping along 34th Street in New York. (Erik Pendzich / REX via Shutterstock, FILE)

“It’s unnerving,” Madad said of the recent surge in COVID-19 cases in the boroughs of Brooklyn and Queens. “This will be an ongoing game of whack-a-mole, but it depends a lot on the cooperation of the general public.”

“I think we’re going to be having a tough time this fall-winter season,” Glatter said. “It may not just be a second wave. It may be more waves and we need to be aware of that.”

Even in New York, where the specter of COVID-19 looms, the long tail of the pandemic and the prospect of social distancing indefinitely has challenged New Yorkers’ resolve. While people may be sick of hearing this, taking key public health measures seriously remains New York’s most vital weapon in fighting the spread of the virus, all three doctors said.

“It is essential that all people continue to wear masks, social distances and practice hand hygiene,” Glatter stressed.

It is also important that the city government provide resources, such as testing, contact location and social services, to residents at the hyperlocal level. Some sick New Yorkers who are asked to comply with a 14-day quarantine need food services and financial support to stay home for that period of time without working, Madad explained.

“We know what to do to fight COVID-19. It’s not rocket science,” Madad said. “People are looking for a solution for magic bullets that they can activate and COVID-19 magically disappears. That’s not how it works.”

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200,000 people in the hospital nationwide every year. If it’s a bad flu season, Americans with the flu could compete for the same hospital resources as those with the new coronavirus. “Data-reactid =” 61 “> The increase in cases overlaps with the onset of the flu season, which usually occurs from October until early spring and which each year reaches up to 200,000 people in hospital across If it’s a bad flu season, Americans with the flu could compete for the same hospital resources as those with the novel coronavirus.

But unlike COVID-19, for which there is still no safe and effective vaccine, we have a vaccine for the flu. “October is a great time to take it,” John said of the flu shot, adding that it’s not just family and friends that you keep safe by getting the vaccine. You are also protecting health workers.

“Don’t think that masking, physical distancing, and flu shots mean nothing,” John said. “It means a lot to us.”

A heartbreaking reaction against science

PHOTOS: People demonstrate against face masks, vaccines, and pandemic closures near the residence of Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker in Swampscott, Mass., Sept. 26, 2020 (M. Scott Brauer / Redux)

Doctors have described the unscientific backlash that has taken root since the start of the pandemic and the politicization of masks and social distancing, in turn, as “disturbing”, “frustrating” and “daunting”.

“Epidemiologists have practices that are very reliable, that take science into account, and that have been proven to work. People consider it a statement now, but it isn’t. It’s a public health measure,” Glatter said.

“In my life, I see how things have changed,” Glatter said. “The pendulum swung against science. People need to realize that what we are seeing right now is not normal.”

Part of the problem is the proliferation of disinformation, which Madad says public health professionals are fighting while simultaneously battling the virus. “It’s really important to face both of them,” he said. “What is even more unfortunate is that this contagion of disinformation takes center stage, instead of fighting the contagion itself.”

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For New York doctors in particular, Americans’ departure from science underscores a level of contempt for their sacrifice this spring.

“This virus could last three to five years if we don’t do it right. We could have millions of deaths and we’re on that track right now,” Glatter warned.

“It’s sobering when you have a 30 or 40-year-old family member or friend dying of it. When you feel that pain and look to the rest of the country to see what their attitude is, it’s just heartbreaking,” he added.

“It’s really scary, to be honest.”

What to know about the coronavirus:

What New York City doctors predict for coronavirus this fall, as positive rates rise originally appeared on abcnews.go.com“data-reactid =” 91 “>What New York City Doctors Predict About Coronavirus This Fall As Positivity Rates Originally Appeared on abcnews.go.com

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