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Home / Health / With climate change, what will your city’s weather feel like in 60 years?

With climate change, what will your city’s weather feel like in 60 years?



In many urban areas, researchers from the University of Maryland, North Carolina State University and the National History Museum of Denmark at the University of Copenhagen found "substantial differences" between the probable climate future and even the best scenario. This means that by 2080, many cities will probably experience "new climes without modern equivalents".

According to the interactive map of researchers, if emissions are not reduced and climate changes continue as it is, by 2080, the summers in New York will feel like that of Jonesboro, Arkansas: an average temperature of 9.1 degrees Fahrenheit warmer and 20.8% drier.

If we reduce emissions and implement policies that address climate change, change will not be as extreme. By 2080, summers in New York would feel more like those in Lake Shore, Maryland: about 4.4 degrees warmer and 9% drier.

Nearly every city in the eastern United States, including Boston, Philadelphia, and Washington, would have climes much more like those of cities hundreds of miles south and southwest.

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It is not only the east coast that could change. The Northeast would be more like the wetlands of the Midwest or the southeastern United States. Western cities would be more like the desert to the southwest. Cities in Florida would have lived summers more like parts of Mexico today. San Francisco would have the climate of Los Angeles: 7 degrees warmer and 40% drier.

The change could be particularly problematic in the West, where the study shows that the average distance between the future climate of cities and the current "climate analogues"

Elevation variations show how drastically different the climate might be in the future .

Take Denver, height 5,280 feet: The "City of Mile" is known for its comfortable mountain climate and depends on tourism with winter sports such as skiing. But by 2080, according to the study, the Denver climate would be warmer than 9 degrees Fahrenheit and more similar to that of Borger's Texas-based Panhandle, height 3,077 feet.

Climate change planning is well underway in Denver, according to Tom Herrod, a program conducted with the Department of Public Health and the Environment. The city has the goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 80% compared to 2005 levels by 2050. Denver has also developed its own climate model to create a climate action plan. , and the numbers of the new study seem similar to those obtained, said Herrod. [19659004] City officials use data sets like these to see how they should improve building codes and ensure they are not only energy efficient but have the right quality of indoor air .

"It's really about planning to adapt and get as much of the city as possible," Herrod said.

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Not much of Denver's residents have air conditioning, but if the city's climate becomes like Texas, it will have to change, and residents will have to prepare.

"We love to see studies like these because it's a great way to bring climate change to people," Herrod said. "This will really have an impact on people in their daily lives."

Kristie Ebi said that more cities will be proactive and think about climate change and its impact on infrastructure.

"Chicago buildings are built for the cold, for example, not for heating: there are so many places without central air, and it is not cheap to install and not cheap to manage, and this is only beginning of the planning that "It is necessary to happen", said Ebi, who was not involved in the new study but who examines the impact of climate change on health as a professor at the Department of Global Health 39. University of Washington

Temperature changes will do more than make the summers extremely uncomfortable for people who are accustomed to milder temperatures.The changes will damage the economies and affect areas such as agriculture and tourism.

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Ebi said that the city's health departments must reflect on the increases in vector-borne diseases. related to heat, allergies and asthma. Worker productivity will fall for those who work outside, and the Little League teams will have to change season to avoid the higher temperature.

"This has an impact on many lives in many ways and on ways in which people may not think about these changes," Ebi said. "Mapping in this way is really useful because it helps people understand how their cities will have to adapt".

Urban populations are considered highly sensitive to climate change, the study said. Since most people live in cities, the authors wanted to show people what climate change could mean to them in a real and concrete way.

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Lynda Walsh, professor at the top University of Nevada, Reno who wrote about the impact ways of communicating on climate change, said she likes this approach.

This approach "does not condemn its spectators to the downfall of the climate, on the contrary, they are invited to imagine a city they have heard about and perhaps even visited" Walsh said in an e-mail. "This approach has the potential to arouse conversations and creative responses" and if we … "rather than a hopeless resignation to a global scenario that goes beyond the control of any community."

Walsh said the authors are right to point out that the climate-analog approach needs further testing to see if this form of communication works, but, said Walsh, "to a climate rhetoric, at least , which is concerned with promoting democratic deliberation and policy-making around the problem, (the researchers) The analog approach is indeed promising. "

" The good news is that it's about projections: the negative consequences they do not necessarily have to occur if we intervene, "said the University of Washington's EBI.

She cites the moment when Mothers Against Drunk Driving became a popular group that supported changes in drunk driving laws.

"A small group of very angry mothers changed all laws in the United States," Ebi said. "It is possible to make rapid changes in short periods of time, we need collective action, individual action and change, this is possible".

CNN Brandon Miller, Judson Jones, Jamie Gumbrecht and Kevin Flower contributed to this relationship.


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